AI Weather Models: More Accurate

 

BY C STONE | STONE NEWS NETWORK ||| TECHNOLOGY SPOTLIGHT

Source: TechCrunch

Microsoft's Auroa Artificial Intelligence can predict air quality, typhoons, and hurricanes, according to the company.

In a recent blog post, Microsoft announced more details about Aurora, which they say can forecast atmospheric events with more precision and speed than any other meteorological methodology.

Aurora was able to predict Typhoon Doksuri's landfall in the Philippines 4 days ahead of the event - beating some predictions. 

From Microsoft's post:

Aurora first learns how to generate forecasts in just seconds through training on general weather patterns from over one million hours of data derived from satellites, radar and weather stations, simulations and forecasts. Microsoft researchers believe it is the largest collection of atmospheric data ever assembled to train an AI forecasting model.  Taking advantage of its unique flexible architecture, Aurora is then “fine-turned” to perform a variety of specific tasks such as predicting wave height or air quality, using modest amounts of additional data. 

To forecast weather and other environmental events, Aurora draws on the power of its size and training with vast amounts of diverse data. This helps Aurora beat existing numerical and AI models across 91 percent of forecasting targets when fine-tuned to medium-range weather forecasts at a resolution of .25 degrees, the researchers reported in Nature.  Medium-range weather forecasts, which people rely on in weather apps, typically reflect an outlook of up to 14 days. 

Incorporating many diverse sources of data results in “not only greater accuracy in general, but it also means we are better at forecasting extreme events,” says Megan Stanley, a senior researcher with Microsoft Research who was part of the core Aurora project team. 

To help advance the field of atmospheric forecasting, Microsoft has made Aurora’s source code and model weights publicly available, allowing developers to download and run or build on Aurora to drive further innovation.